Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 2.338676 2.477796 2.629258 2.808094 3.015814 3.252572 3.547621
2025-08-03 2.200314 2.372684 2.568183 2.810413 3.108801 3.473906 3.971787
2025-08-10 2.065089 2.247531 2.459016 2.728147 3.071176 3.509588 4.144148
2025-08-17 1.989817 2.182470 2.409968 2.706296 3.095750 3.614235 4.410455
2025-08-24 1.930987 2.130825 2.370288 2.688108 3.116562 3.707333 4.664648
2025-08-31 1.883768 2.089119 2.338192 2.674044 3.136851 3.795263 4.917289
2025-09-07 1.857823 2.071035 2.332942 2.692087 3.198919 3.945666 5.296164
2025-09-14 1.789609 1.996923 2.252192 2.603354 3.101194 3.839750 5.191645
2025-09-21 1.760641 1.970678 2.231282 2.593487 3.114695 3.905650 5.413803
2025-09-28 1.719238 1.927033 2.185751 2.547034 3.070514 3.873438 5.434974
2025-10-05 1.721088 1.937913 2.210949 2.598201 3.172414 4.085886 5.992308
2025-10-12 1.732283 1.960529 2.251659 2.672031 3.312551 4.378076 6.819471
2025-10-19 1.713539 1.944676 2.241551 2.674457 3.344226 4.487654 7.264476
2025-10-26 1.696891 1.930714 2.232990 2.677864 3.376231 4.599006 7.752196
2025-11-02 1.653714 1.880774 2.173986 2.604844 3.279529 4.455697 7.456717
2025-11-09 1.632232 1.858849 2.152494 2.586112 3.270434 4.479913 7.671948
2025-11-16 1.613154 1.839535 2.133855 2.570567 3.265094 4.509586 7.910585
2025-11-23 1.596429 1.822862 2.118238 2.558654 3.264571 4.547506 8.186422
2025-11-30 1.590956 1.820778 2.122336 2.575821 3.312846 4.687017 8.870438
2025-12-07 1.552091 1.773556 2.063001 2.495768 3.192537 4.469248 8.171485
2025-12-14 1.539238 1.760839 2.051292 2.487381 3.194288 4.505921 8.444239
2025-12-21 1.515249 1.732895 2.017953 2.445479 3.137283 4.416700 8.223110
2025-12-28 1.522785 1.747069 2.043230 2.492766 3.234684 4.658732 9.386093